by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
There is a hint that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews might be about to end a pronounced UNDER trend as they shoot for a road sweep on Tuesday night. The Maple Leafs are a slim -115 away favourite against the -105 home underdog Calgary Flames with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Maple Leafs are 11-9 in their last 20 away games (regular season only) with the total going OVER 13 times at online betting sites. The Flames are 2-7 in their last nine games as a home underdog, with the total going OVER five times. The total has gone UNDER in four of Toronto’s last five games as an away favourite, and has also gone UNDER in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games with one push.
Maple Leafs vs Flames | OddsShark Matchup Report
Toronto edged Calgary 3-2 on Sunday. The matchup had a fair amount of offensive activity, with Natural Stat Trick crediting the Flames with 2.55 expected goals for in five-on-five play – the most by a Maple Leafs opponent so far this season – and Toronto with 2.17, its second-highest.
The Maple Leafs are 5-2-0 so far this season, and had the edge in shots-for percentage for the first time in three games during their win on Sunday. Matthews has had at least one point in each of his last four games as he and left wing William Nylander have been among the most proficient top-end forwards in the NHL.
Toronto still has a drop-off from gaining puck possession to generating dangerous chances at five-on-five. The Maple Leafs rank fifth in the 31-team NHL in shot attempts (54.2 percent), ninth in shots for (52.2) and 18th in high-danger chances percentage (48.9). That could mean that a breakout is not far off. So far this season, the Maple Leafs are 14th in goals scored (3.14 per game) and 12th in goals against (2.71). They have the third-best power play (40.9 percent) and the penalty killing unit ranks 13th (80.8).
Jack Campbell stopped 31-of-33 shots in support of Toronto’s winning effort on Sunday. That suggests starting goalie Frederik Andersen, who has a 3-2-0 record with a 2.81 goals-against average and .898 save percentage, should be back in the Maple Leafs’ net. Andersen has an 8-2-2 record with a 2.44 GAA and .918 save percentage in 14 career games against Calgary.
The Flames are 2-1-1, and their forward corps, led by the likes of Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk, is likely deeper across all four lines than Toronto’s but less blessed with natural offense. The Flames thrive at wearying opponents into making mistakes, but that might be tough against an up-tempo team who just saw them two nights ago.
The Flames rank eighth in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (53.6 percent), but when it comes to shots-for and high-danger chances percentage, they are 19th (48.9) and 16th (50.0) in the league. Calgary is 10th in goals scored (3.25) and seventh in goals against (2.25). On the special teams side, the Flames have the sixth-ranked power play (35.0) and rank seventh at penalty killing (87.5).
Jacob Markstrom has started all four of Calgary’s games and is 2-1-1 with a 2.26 GAA and .928 save percentage. Against Toronto, Markstrom has a 2-5-1 record with a 2.83 GAA and .905 save percentage in nine career games, while backup David Rittich is 2-1-0 with a 2.92 GAA and .912 save percentage in three games.
The Maple Leafs visit the Edmonton Oilers for a two-game series set for Thursday and Saturday before taking a four-day break.
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